It is interesting to note that the government of Honduras has reported that it overwhelmingly won many court battles it fought with diverse individuals and institutions during 1998. The final result totals 286.4 million lempiras won, versus 17.9 lost. In other words, the Honduran government won about 94 % of the cases and lost only 6 %.

It is rumored that President Carlos Flores has requested that all of his key government functionaries provide him with their formal resignations by the end of the year. We applaud this measure which is reminiscent of former President Ramón Villeda Morales (R.I.P.), who employed this technique during his administration. The advantage of this technique is that it allows the president to shuffle his administration the way he best feels will accomplish his objectives and benefit the nation, without having to puncture any over-inflated egos.

Another measure that we effusively welcome is the proposal to ban all public political activity during 1999. The country definitely needs to focus its attention on reconstruction efforts and should not be distracted by such frivolities, especially considering that the next elections are scheduled for the year 2002.

The coming year will be an extremely difficult one for Honduras, for the realities of the damages left by Hurricane Mitch will sink in and be felt in varying degrees by all Hondurans throughout the entire nation. In essence, the country needs to be completely reconstructed since Mitch effectively wiped out the country's infrastructure. Furthermore, agricultural exports traditionally have been the most important dollar generator for the country, but in 1999 they will be minimal considering the estimated 70 % damages caused by the hurricane to this vital economic sector. The following list outlines what are some of the most important problems that the country will face during 1999:

Thousands of homeless families. Many Hondurans are presently living in temporary shelters and will need to be relocated to permanent homes. Schools that are presently being employed as shelters will need to be vacated and must be readied for the school year that is presently scheduled to commence in February. The government has proposed the creation of "megashelters" but this measure has been staunchly rejected by many churches that are presently administrating shelters since they believe that they lack the resources to manage larger shelters.

Thousands of unemployed citizens. Many companies have contracted their operations as a direct result of the damages they suffered during Mitch. The government plans to employ labor intensive tactics in its reconstruction efforts to mitigate this problem, a Honduran equivalent of Roosevelt's "New Deal". Even so, this is a temporary solution that could backfire and foment social discontent, especially considering the government's plan to employ food received as aid in "work for food" barter programs.

Unfortunately many Hondurans oppose these types of programs, as evidenced by the staunch resistance to recent programs implemented during cleanup efforts after Mitch. One example is the massive griping heard from residents in the Chamelecón area, who were provided shovels and paid the symbolic sum of fifty lempiras daily to clean mud from their own homes. Another example was the refusal by schoolteachers on the San Pedro Sula municipal payroll to heed the mayor's call for them to help work in shelters. A final example was the inability of local area residents to assist Tony "the Swiss" in his efforts. This unique individual came from abroad, employing his own money and resources to help rebuild bridges damaged by Mitch in remote communities.

Destroyed infrastructure. Although the government (with the direct assistance of the United States armed forces) has done an excellent job to date reestablishing land routes to areas that had been cut off from the rest of the country, many are temporary "Band-Aid" solutions that will eventually require the implementation of permanent ones. On a local level, the heavy rains also created many potholes in municipal streets throughout the nation's urban areas. The San Pedro Sula mayor, Roberto Larios Silva is one example of a local functionary who has already begun the arduous task of fixing city streets that were damaged.

Furthermore, Mitch changed the course of many rivers throughout the country and filled their beds with dirt and sand. This means that now even minor storms with small amounts of rainfall could result in overflowing rivers and flooding. The government should invest in the construction of new levees to prevent this from happening. It is worth mentioning that San Pedro Sula did not suffer any major destruction from Mitch precisely because the levees constructed after Hurricane Fifi protected those same areas that had been flooded during that previous hurricane.

Health problems. Hurricane Mitch left latent health bombs that may explode at any moment. The basic health infrastructure was severely damaged, including rural health centers, basic water supplies and waste systems. This means that the risk of possible epidemic outbreaks remains high throughout the country. The lack of appropriate medicines and their timely distribution and affordable cost is already a perennial Honduran problem that will be exacerbated in the coming year. The AIDS epidemic will also continue to adversely affect the country by shortening the useful life span of many individuals, using precious economic resources on treatment and prevention, and by leaving young children without parents.

Educational system. The entire school system was reduced to a shambles and needs to be completely rebuilt. This reconstruction should be accomplished preferably prior to the next academic year that is presently scheduled to commence in February. We unfortunately anticipate that many areas will have many more students than available school openings. We do not consider home schooling to be a viable option in a country where only the elite can afford to have a parent stay at home. We fear that most of these children will end up working somehow, or hustling in the streets to help support the family.

Ecological problems. Prior to Mitch, many government entities (for example the San Pedro Sula water utility company, D.I.M.A.) were trying to change the modus operandi of companies by implementing strict ecological regulations concerning wastes. Priorities have now shifted and costly ecology friendly policies are no longer very viable. In summary, wastes will continue to be dumped anywhere due to ineffectual governmental controls and regulations.

Deforestation. This traditional problem will continue to worsen as long as the government is unable to adequately police the forests and change the mentality of rural inhabitants. One of the reasons that Mitch caused so much damage is due to the lack of trees to mitigate erosion. Although the government plans to sell oxygen to European countries, it will still have to solve the monumental problem of ensuring that unscrupulous loggers do not continue their practice of cutting down trees and smuggling wood.

Criminal detention. Although much progress has been made in recent years, experts estimate that there still are thousands of people behind bars that have not yet received sentencing. Furthermore, the number of incarcerated inmates vastly exceeds the prison system's capacity. This overcrowding has culminated in prison riots. Most recently, inmates in the new correctional facility in Tamara took control of it for 46 days, during which time they literally tore the installations apart.

Drug trafficking. The local police force needs to invest millions of dollars in equipment and training to combat narcotics traffickers. The recent escape of two drug lords from prison after bribing officials underscores this problem. It is worth mentioning that the police official who originally arrested them has already received revengeful death threats.

Street crime and prostitution. Gangs have proliferated throughout the country, which is a symptom of the deep social ills that plague Honduran society. The proliferation of single parent families, street children, alcoholism and drug addiction are other symptoms that invariably lead to increased street crime and prostitution. As the economic situation deteriorates and citizens get more desperate, the temptation to commit crimes becomes stronger and engulfs those who previously had never succumbed to these temptations. In other words, more muggings will occur and the price charged by prostitutes will drop since there will be more of them competing for fewer clients with the economic means to afford their services.

High interest rates. Although the government has already announced that it will lower the legal bank interest rate by two percent, lending rates in Honduras will continue to remain astronomical, and this will impede its economic recovery. Unless the government actively provides programs of low interest funding and other incentives to the agricultural sector, many farmers who lost everything during Mitch will be unable to effectively replant their crops to maximize future yields.

Food shortages. Two key factors that will mitigate this threat are the international donations that the country has received and the high dollar reserves presently maintained by the Central Bank. Nonetheless, we anticipate that 1999 will be a very rotten year in terms of agricultural yields, and the local populace's food needs will greatly surpass the country's production capacity. This will ultimately result in the need to import basic foods and subsidize them in order to maintain low prices and fulfill the country's needs. This is precisely where international food donations and the dollar reserves will play a key role in resolving possible food shortages.

Potable water shortages. This worldwide problem also adversely affects Honduras, most notably in the Tegucigalpa vicinity, which suffers from overcrowding and scarce water supply sources. Many rural areas also had their local supply systems damaged by Mitch. The Minister of the Honduran Fund for Social Investment (FHIS), Manuel Zelaya Rosales, has reported that the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has approved the donation of 54 million lempiras specifically for projects to rebuild potable water systems throughout Honduras. As of this writing, 17 projects totaling 11.2 million have already been initiated; and another 34 projects totaling 14.4 million are about to break ground.

It is also worth mentioning that careless environmental policies exercised by the nation's populace have resulted in contaminated water sources throughout the country. The most infamous example is Lake Yojoa, whose formerly pristine waters have reportedly become mercury-tainted due to careless mining techniques exercised for years in its surrounding mountainside, and which has supposedly made many of its fish too toxic for human consumption. Other examples are the perennial reports in the daily Honduran newspapers of major fish deaths in local rivers that are invariably attributed to illegal chemical dumping or run-off by area factories or agricultural operations. Poor hygienic practices have also resulted in bacteria infested water supply sources. In summary, it is highly probable that many rural communities in Honduras consume water from contaminated sources without even realizing it.

In a related item, one of the benefits left by Mitch is the fact that the hydroelectric dam "El Cajón is presently completely filled with water. This vital power generator is located in the middle of the country and represents about 45% of the total installed capacity to generate the nation's electricity. This means that it is highly unlikely that there will be any major electricity shortages during 1999.

Re-engineering the public sector. The public sector in Honduras is way too big for such a small, poverty stricken country. Although great strides have been made in recent years to combat corruption, this malignant evil has been inbred into Honduran society after years of paternalism, military dictatorships and low wages. The government has been forced to increase its auditing capabilities in order to detect rotten apples at all levels within the system. Aid has been moving at a snail's pace precisely because of all the inefficient control procedures implemented by the government to ensure that none of it mysteriously disappears.

Ethics are a moot subject in a country where employment opportunities are extremely scarce, and dishonest practices are revered much more than integrity and which are oftentimes employed as a means of survival. A good example of this self-destructive attitude is the recent failure by the "fathers of the nation", i.e. the representatives in the National Congress, to reduce its inordinate large size of 128 members in a country of only some six million inhabitants.

Although many nations throughout the world have offered economic and technical assistance to Honduras, a concrete plan must first be drafted and presented to the corresponding international organizations prior to receiving the promised assistance. The government has taken steps in the right direction by creating a special reconstruction cabinet.

Nonetheless, the recent resignation of Fernando Martínez (famous Tegucigalpan architect who presently serves as the nation's Chancellor of Foreign Affairs) as consultant to this cabinet underscores its lack of agility and timely decision making. He claims to have resigned from this task since he felt the cabinet was dragging its feet and working ineffectively. One thing is for certain, the first deadline of February is rapidly approaching and we have yet to see what they plan to do about the wrecked educational system.

Although the above list paints a very dismal picture, we here at Honduras.com embrace the coming year with outstretched arms. We sincerely believe that President Flores' superb performance to date as leader of the nation indicates that the present administration has the capability of overcoming the difficult challenges that it will face in 1999. Furthermore, all of the most powerful nations on earth have pledged to help Honduras in its reconstruction efforts.

We therefore view 1999 as a historic turning point for the nation and consider it to be an opportunity for Honduras to enter the new century completely revitalized. Actions implemented in 1999 will affect the nation for generations. The government has all of the necessary tools and resources at its immediate disposal. It has the financial support of the most powerful nations on the planet and the best minds available to forge a new, improved Honduras. All it needs now is to devise a viable plan with realistic objectives and to start working towards accomplishing them as soon as possible.

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