Fantasy Politics
by O Ma R Orbison

Updated Sept 30, 1998 – Revised Oct 1, 1998  - (Disclaimer)

Gallup Poll Results – October, 1998 Results of the Gallup poll reflects that previous Fantasy Politics commentary and predictions are right on target.

This is the first update of the Fantasy Politics section that was originally posted March 22, 1998 on Honduras.com. Since then, we have received numerous emails concerning this controversial section. Originally we had planned to release a forum along with the section, but its launch has been postponed until further notice. We may decide to launch it once the next presidential elections scheduled for 2001 are in full swing.

Another facet of our new plan is to submit updates to this section on a monthly basis and comment on both the political situation in Honduras (past, present and future) and on the emails that we receive. We do not belong to any particular political party, nor do we endorse any candidates. We try our best to objectively analyze the possible presidential candidates based on their merits and pitfalls. Our correspondents prefer to remain anonymous to the general public, which allows them to objectively evaluate political figures without being subjected to possible pressures or reprisals. We also realize that we do not have a crystal ball that will predict the actual final outcome, nonetheless we strive to analyze the Honduran political scene to the best of our abilities. We are certain, however, that what we publish is intellectually stimulating and based on facts and can be of invaluable assistance to anyone trying to understand local politics. We invite your comments for our evaluation and possibly inclusion in future updates, in other words, we look forward to hearing from you!

Enough preamble, now onto the meat of this month’s update!

The following are the results of the latest Cid-Gallop poll that was published in the daily La Prensa AFTER our previous updates of  March and September. Analyzing the two clearly demonstrates that our predictions are right on target!!!

I - What if a president were able to serve a second term?

Carlos Roberto Flores Facussé has performed admirably to date as president of the nation, and we sincerely hope that he continues along this path. He has become very popular amongst the general populace and one of our readers suggested that he might attempt to reform the constitution in order to provide for a possible reelection for a second term. In our opinion, this possibility is equivalent to opening a real can of worms. Sure, it would be advantageous to him to try and ride on his popularity wave to serve a second term, but a constitutional debate of this magnitude would also jeopardize his popularity. He would be attacked from all sides and portrayed as “Fujimoristic” (this is fun, we’ve just invented a new word that has our spell checker going nuts!). For those of you who have no clue as to what Fujimoristic means, we suggest you delve into contemporary Peruvian politics and study the diverse tactics that the presiding president employs to remain in power.

Let’s analyze this possibility. Should President Flores decide to try and reform the Honduran constitution to permit him to serve a second term, we are unaware of any legal way that the reform would be in place in time for the next elections. In other words, should he be successful in having the reform passed through the National Congress, it would still need to be ratified by the following congress, i.e. the one to be elected in the next elections.

Nonetheless, a truly Fujimoristic tactic would be to steam roll the constitutional reform through and stay in power at all costs – perhaps by discarding the constitution altogether. The political costs in this scenario would be enormous. In this one deft maneuver, he would immediately lose all international credibility. Only a few other countries would possibly support such a move, perhaps Cuba and Peru would be the only ones in this hemisphere. Being of Japanese descent, Fujimori was able to secure support from that country. Along the same lines, perhaps Flores Facussé would be able to muster support from some Middle Eastern Arabian country. This nefarious tactic would definitely result in having the country blacklisted and traditional international funding would be halted. It would also enhance the country’s corrupt banana republic image.

One thing for certain, Flores would definitely need the support of the military to maintain civil peace. A recent constitutional reform that he spearheaded will eliminate the present position of commander in chief of the armed forces in 1999. Although theoretically this reform now makes Flores the supreme leader of the armed forces, a truly Fujimoristic tactic used to secure his position would probably divide the armed forces and seriously jeopardize his continued leadership. The reformers who have traditionally supported Flores would be left wondering what to do. Idealistically they could not continue to support him since discarding the constitution rejects all democratic principles. The conservatives who yearn for the days when the military ran the country would devise plots on how to overthrow him and seize power. In summary, the military would most probably not outright support such a nefarious maneuver. Although President Flores is presently very popular, we sincerely doubt that the general populace would support this unconstitutional tactic and peacefully allow him to do what he pleases. The resulting uproar would include diverse pressures emanating from all sectors that would commence employing counter measures. In summary, although power can corrupt even those of the highest integrity, we sincerely doubt that Flores will stoop to such Machiavellian tactics to ensure his continuance as president beyond 2002.

However, another scenario must be analyzed. Let’s suppose that Flores decides that he does want to be re-elected, but he does not violate the present constitution. He would then need to have the constitution reform to allow for a second term, but this reform would need to be ratified by the next congress. This would mean that the earliest that he could possibly be re-elected would be in 2005 since it would require an interim president. This scenario would then also open the doors for a rematch battle between Flores and former president Callejas. Callejas soundly defeated Flores previously and was able to occupy the presidency during the years of 1990 and 1994. Although the Callejas administration has been labeled by the US government as one of the most corrupt of these contemporary times, the witch hunt initiated by his successor Reina was unable to make any charges stick. Even today, Callejas still enjoys widespread popularity amongst his National party and even those of the opposing Liberal party. In summary, a constitutional reform allowing a president to serve more than one term would drastically alter the Honduran political scene.

II – Possible presidential candidates that were excluded from the original analysis:

Liberal Party:

Rafael Pineda Ponce: Presently serves as president of the National Congress, and obviously plans to follow in his predecessor’s footsteps. He is employing the same conflictive tactic of disagreeing with the president on key issues. [One good example is the controversial issue regarding the maximum time that a prisoner may be incarcerated; Flores wants to implement life sentences, whereas "Ra Pin Pon" (public nick name that is a shortened version of his full name) wants to maintain the status quo of a maximum thirty years.] Nonetheless, he is also sitting on a time bomb that President Flores left. This bomb is the issue regarding reducing the number of representatives to the National Congress. The previous administration passed a proposal to reduce the number of representatives from the present 128 to 80, and this proposal must be ratified by the current congress in order to become law. In other words, politically it is difficult to implement this proposal since it would alienate other members of the congress who want to continue in their positions, yet it is a popular measure amongst the general populace. We personally do not think that Ra Pin Pon has enough support to be elected president.

Esteban Handal Perez: This self-proclaimed “Toro Colorado” (colored bull), president of the “New Generation” movement, has a slim possibility of becoming a serious contender since he obviously plans to invest a lot of money on his campaign effort, but we sincerely doubt that he will receive the Liberal party’s nomination. He already has begun fervently campaigning for the next elections, as evidenced by his inclusion of political parade floats in both the San Isidro Fair of La Ceiba and the June Fair of San Pedro Sula. Bumper stickers supporting him are already visible throughout the country, as well as numerous media spots. In our opinion, this character is extremely scary and reminds us of Jerry Faldwell and the moral majority, since he constantly mixes religion with politics. He claims to be on a mission from God to rescue the country’s moral values – we tend to view him more as a Honduran antichrist. Furthermore, he is also a notorious “comet” – one of those congressional representatives that collect their pay (supposedly donated to help his poor constituents; where are the receipts?) but do not bother to show up for sessions. We wonder how he plans to restore fallen moral values when his own errant behavior as a comet indicates otherwise.

National Party:

Rodolfo Irias Navas: Former president of the National Congress during the Callejas administration, and very popular in the region where he was elected from, i.e. the La Ceiba and Colon areas. Nonetheless, he has not been very visible in the local press ever since the Liberal party has been in power, except recently when he made the infamous “comet” list. His lack of political visibility combined with the adverse publicity surrounding his comet status sink his presidential chances even deeper. We sincerely doubt that he will be able to secure the National party nomination in the next presidential primaries.

Carlos Urbizo: Economist and successful businessman who is president of the La Constancia bank group. He constantly opinionates on government economic policies and other issues and may be vying for a dark horse status. However, it is our opinion that he presently qualifies more as a serious contender for an influential secondary position than in securing the party’s presidential nomination.

III – Update Summary and Notes:

Jaime Rosenthal Oliva recently stated to the press that it would be very difficult for his party to win the elections for a third straight time, unless the present administration does an outstanding job. So far, President Carlos Flores has been living up to those expectations since his performance has been quite admirable.

Rosenthal Oliva also predicted that he will win the Liberal party nomination for presidential candidate in the next elections. Although we do believe that his is right on the mark with this prediction, it is also our opinion that the adverse political baggage he carries is still too heavy and will ultimately sink him. It is ironic that many voters support this magnate precisely because they feel he will not steal from the government. We personally tend to believe that he will definitely prosper economically as the nation’s president, for he is extremely astute and will devise legal ways to capitalize on the position, along the lines of the former National party president, Callejas.

Although we do not have the actual figures at this time, the vast majority of registered voters consider themselves to be members of the Liberal party, followed by the National party. Perhaps one of you readers could provide us with that statistical data! Of course, party preference does not guarantee that any individual voter will not cross party lines should they consider an opposing candidate to be a better choice.

Furthermore, this analysis excludes what may be considered to be the “wild card” – an estimated 400 thousand citizens who will become old enough to vote in the next elections but who were too young to participate in the past ones. Surveys have indicated that the majority of these individuals have expressed a preference for the Liberal party, but once again, this does not guarantee that they will actively vote for their stated preference.

Final Verdict:

Although this updated verdict does not differ substantially from the previous prediction, it does change a little. This update predicts the final candidates for the next presidential election scheduled for 2001 will be Jaime Rosenthal Oliva representing the Liberal party versus Cesar Castellanos representing the National party, and that the latter will ultimately become the next president of Honduras. The other parties are still too small to pose any real threat, though they could possibly swing the overall election one way or the other.

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