With less than three weeks left before the elections, the results are still quite unclear for the Honduras presidential candidates; however, there are some tendencies that might be enough to draw conclusions.
First of all, one of the election spoilers, Salvador Nastralla from the PAC (Anticorruption Party) has suffered a free fall in voter intention. He has been targeted by the National Party, and his difficulty in keeping control of his temper has resulted in childish tantrums that seem to have discouraged his following. Although it is unclear if he will gain many votes, one thing is clear, he is no longer a frontrunner and has fallen to a distant fourth place in the race.
Libre, who has been fighting the lead, does not seem to be able to get past the 28 or 29% of voter intention. They simply have not been able to attract more sympathy from the Honduran electors.
In the meantime, the big winners of Nasralla’s freefall have been the National Party’s candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has had a very aggressive campaign, and Mauricio Villeda, the Liberal Party candidate.
The more serious polls show Hernandez about 5 points ahead of Libre, and the Liberal party about 2 points behind Libre, but with a tendency to grow. So, in effect, everything seems to point towards a win by the National Party candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez. The big question is, who will be the second force in congress? Libre or the Liberal Party?
My guess is that Juan Orlando Hernandez will be elected president of Honduras, and that Congress will be shared between the three forces, with the National and Liberal Parties having the largest number of congressmen, and Libre close behind. This will mean that the two traditional parties will probably team up to create a Congress that will be friendly to Hernandez and seek to weaken Libre, who will not have enough votes to derail government proposals, allowing for a high degree of governability. This, of course, will be the last chance that the two traditional parties will have to keep their control of the Honduran government. If they do not produce good results, they will surely be ousted next time around.
We are currently in a period where polls are no longer allowed, and the candidates are getting ready to close their campaigns, we only have a dozen days before the campaigns end, and I am soooo looking forward to that. The visual impact of posters and road signs all over the country is overwhelming and quite disagreeable.
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